Wednesday April 21, 1999
Announcements:

• The reaction paper to the film is due next Monday or Wednesday

1. Population

1. Demographic Transition Theory

1. Technology and modernization are the critical factors in population growth and limited population growth. Theorizes that population is linked to society’s modernization and technological advancement
2. Graph

1. Stage 1: Pre-industrial – High birth rate and high death rate = slow population growth. People have kids for economic reasons; the birth rate and death rate neutralize each other. 23 countries are currently in Stage 1, including Afghanistan and Rwanda
2. Stage 2: Early Industrial – Birth rate remains high, death rate plummets = rapid population growth. More children passed through infant mortality stage and into their reproduction years. The low death rate is due to technological advancement, food that is plentiful and more nutritious, improved sanitation, and less disease. Examples of Early Industrial nations are India and Middle Eastern countries
3. Stage 3: Mature Industrial – Death rate low, birth rate is coming down = slow population growth. Children are seen as a liability rather than an asset. Women are more educated as well. Examples: Canada, Australia, USA (immigration plays a key factor)
4. Stage 4: Post-industrial – Birth rate and death rate are low = very slow population growth. Birthrates continue to fall because of dual family income. People in these countries are very materialistic; they would rather have 2 cars than 2 kids. Examples: Japan, France, Germany
5. NOTE: USA is in Stage 4, but still in Stage 3 demographically speaking. Russia has a slow population growth despite not being technologically advanced. India and China have all 4 stages and very high populations

1. World Population

1. In one day the world’s population increases by 250,000 people – most in LDC’s
2. Average rate of growth is 1.5% - advanced countries have lower rates of growth while developing countries have higher rates of growth.
3. The poor are having more kids and the rich are getting richer

1. Population Policies and Strategies (use for film)

1. Family Planning – if contraceptives are available and family planning awareness is distributed, fertility will be reduced and countries can then develop. Example: Bangladesh – a very poor country with a low fertility rate because people are aware of family planning. Their government had an aggressive family planning policy even though they are not economically advanced
2. Social Changes – Changing attitudes and behavior. Coale had 3 ideas:

1. Calculated choice about fertility
2. Must see advantages of reducing fertility
3. * Must have knowledge and mastery of contraceptive techniques

1. Developmentalist Strategy – Development is the best contraceptive. When literacy rate goes up, fertility rate goes down. People do not want their standard of living to go down.
2. Societalist Strategy – Kingsley Davis – Government should control fertility by rewarding low fertility and penalizing high fertility. Example: China
3. Female literacy and Mass Education – When women are educated there is a low fertility rate. Example: Kenala, India – Literacy rate is high; women are actively employed; it is a matriarchal society.

1. World Population Update

1. Global Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 5 children, now it is 2.8 and declining
2. Richest Countries – TFR is declining, Italy is the lowest
3. LDC’s TFR from 1965-1970 was 6, now it is 3 and falling quickly
4. India – TFR dropped from 6 to 3.4
5. Reasons for this: Urbanization, modernization, education of women, legal abortion, higher income, delayed marriage, divorce, contraception, low infant mortality rate, and accepting homosexuality

1. The World’s Most Populous Countries – China and India (41% of world population)

1. China

1. Mao Zadong – Cultural Revolution in 1949 – he never paid attention to the population growth
2. One-Child policy in 1980 – if they didn’t have this policy they would have 240 million more people
3. Anti-Natalist Policies: Incentives and Penalties

1. Incentives – Better housing, education, health care, and a bonus from the government if you have only one child. In China you need a red certificate to have a kid; need permission to conceive
2. Penalties – 6% of income is a fine for having a second child, plus you don’t get incentives. To help stop people from having kids China has raised the legal marriage age and legalized abortion

1. Female Infanticide – females are abandoned and killed
2. Update (1998) – 3 factors deterring the 1-child policy – it is weakening

1. China moving towards a market economy; can pay local officials $200 to have a second child
2. In rural areas Chinese people have 3 or 4 children
3. 100 million people migrate and have kids in different places; the government cannot keep track of everyone