Monday, April 12th, 1999

Announcements: none

Lecture notes:
I.  Armed Races
    A. Linked to war
    B. Countries that collect weapons tend to fight others
        1. As seen during World War II
    C. Definition - the competitive armament by two or more countries to protect themselves from each other
    D. Realists almost always assume that it is to compete
        1 Realists concepts basis
II. Why countries buy arms?
    A. One reason is if a country sees its neighbors or enemies buy weapons, they will buy weapons.
    B. Domestic considerations is another reason (nonrealistic)
III. Prisoner's dilemma
   A. What realists believe countries deal with when faced with international affairs
   B. What happens when two criminals are arrested and they are put in separate rooms for questioning
   C. Dilemma: Do they tell the truth or not?
   D. Police have the pay-off setup so one will defect
   E.  If both keep their mouth shut, they will have a smaller punishment
   F. If both tell the truth, they will have a worse punishment than if they would have not told
   G. If one talks, he will get off (or have a lesser punishment), and the other has the worse punishment

    E. Each prisoner will be better off defecting, because the punishment will be less
    F. The prisoner's dilemma is the story that realists use to describe arms races
    G. The result is that both countries will build up arms
IV. Another View
    A. Richardson -- a meteorologists from England
    B. He fought in World War II
    C. After the war he devoted the rest of his professional career to figuring out the causes of World War I
        1. It was the arms race
    D. Approach it like he approached weather
    E. Problems with his approach
        1. Under certain conditions all countries should use all resources to build arms
        2. No place for people to make decisions
V. What models don't tell us?
    A. Predict too many arms races
VI.  Donald Kaplin
    A. Watches how Defense establishment in Congress works
    B. Each year there are defense budget hearings
        1. Sometimes the defense establishment gets more than asked for in some areas of the budget
    C. After Cold War, the military had cut backs
        1. Wanted to cut back the numbers of military bases --- but was very difficult
        2. Most of the bases are in every congressional district
        3. Defense department came with a list of bases that should close
            a. Congress said no, because somehow decision would opposed
      4. Collective action problem - everyone wanted to protect own bases
      5. Set up independent counsel which they had no control over
          a. Congress can only say yes or no to the counsels decision
VII. In 1960, JFK beat Nixon by the narrowest margin in history
     A. JFK said when he got into office he would fill in the missile technology gap between US & USSR
     B. Not true- it was a response to a perception thrill
    C. Reagan Administration had the largest military build up in US history
VIII. In general,  state do not usually build arms because of threats aboard.
    A. Most people feel that countries who build weapons go to war more frequently which is false
    B. During the 1980s, there was a feeling that there was a regrowth of interest in the Cold War
    C. Arms control was created to counteract this
        1. It is the mulilateral/bilateral effort to reduce weapons
    D. It's purpose:
       1. to limit the number or capability of weapons
            a. Reduce intensity
        2. Creates stability by predicting what the world would be like in the future
            a. Example: USSR was afraid the US would get stronger in the 1980s under Reagan. They were trying to
                            decide if it was better to attack now before they got any stronger, or wait to see what happened.
        3. Reduces the number  by making the weapons more manageable
            b. Early efforts to eliminate counter measures ( i.e., antiballistic missiles)
IX. Kosovo
    A. Shortage of Air force conventional Tomahawk missiles
        1. US has made it a policy not to say what kind of weapons have nuclear war heads and where the weapons are
            located.
    B. Satellite photos have seen large areas of freshly tilled ground-- could be mass graves
    C.  Very few combat aged men are among the refugees
        1. Either they were killed by the Serbs or they stayed behind to fight with the KLA
    D. Future use of ground troops is becoming more of an option
        1. Apache helicopters are now in Albania and they take 1,000 people to support
        2. British special forces already there
    E. Never has there been a war when air forces have taken the place of ground troops
        1. Air power can only punish, not deny
        2. Ground force  has more causalities
    F. Refugees (20,000) were lost (misplaced)
    G. Refugees are treated worse in Macedonia, than in Albania
        1. Macedonia is ethnically mixed with a large Serb population who does not want to become a minority
        2. Considered letting in more refugees in, but were afraid it would upset ethnic balance
        3. Afraid same situation as Israel will happen there