Wednesday, April 7th, 1999

Announcements: All Dan's sections have a quiz on Friday on North and South America

Lecture notes:
I. Causes of War
    A. Systemic Theories of War
        1. There was a bipolar war during the Cold War
            a. You either had an alliance with the United States or the Soviet Union
        2. Today there exists a multipolar world
        3. Because the world is bipolar, the balance of power theory has flaws
            a. Doesn't apply at all in some cases
    B. Didactic Theories of War that involve at least two states
    C. Diversionary Theories
        1. "Wag the Dog"
        2. Doesn't look as if it is happening in most cases
        3. Problem: If a country is known to be using this theory, other countries will be more
                            cautious toward them.
        4. Politics is different from physics because in physics there is a set cause and effect.
            In politics, there may be similar causes, but the effects will be different each time
            because each country will react differently and change their behavior accordingly.
    D. State Level Theories of War
        1. Liberalists view
        2. Countries where the people rule the government (republics) are less likely to
            fight because the citizens are the ones who have to declare war and are the ones
            that are going to fight
        3. In monarchies and dictatorships, the leaders are more likely to us war to resolve
            conflict because the citizens are the ones who have to fight, not the leader.
        4. Republics tend to be associated with liberal economics
            a. People make economic politics
            b. Decreased economic interaction between countries will deter the use of war
        5. This theory was not widely embraced until 20 years ago
        6. The theory couldn't be proven until recently by Russet, Singer and Small
        7. The theory was proven to be wrong, but only partly
            a. Democracies are just as likely to go to war
            b. Democracies do not fight each other
        8. This theory is popular for two reasons:
            a. The spread of democracy could lead to world peace
            b. Relationship is unique to study different levels of analysis because you must look
                at pairs of states.
                -It takes two states to fight
        9. Easiest way not to have war is for one country to back down
       10. Makes sense when looking at wars may happen, it makes sense to look at state
             pairs.
II. Expected Utility Theory
    A. Realist explanation for war was power
        1. Power was not enough to explain
        2. Power was not the only way to win a war
        3. Strong states usually do not have to fight to get their way; other states are
            intimidated by them.
    B. Power does not always tell you what people want
        1. You can not just look at weapons, you must also look at the motive behind the
            action.
   C. Adopted from Welfare Economics
        1. Looks at the allocation and distribution of resources
   D. Interested in how states allocate and consume resources
        1. Looks at weapons instead of money
   E. The Vietnam War
        1. US was stronger
        2. North Vietnam had more drive to win
        3. This can also be seen in Kosovo today
   F. Can not look at what you could do, but how bad you want it
   G. How much it means to you will determine how much effort put into it
        1. If everything is equal, the stronger country will win
        2. If one country is strong, but the other side cares a lot about the issue, they could
            win
        3. Explains why there are contests without the Balance of Power theory
III. Jeffrey Blade (Australia)
    A. Wars are a means to an end
    B. Politicians and Leaders are not interested why war happens, only the end result
    C. War is only one method of engaging in a conflict with another state
    D. Problem with explaining why they did something instead of using other methods
    E. Most fight because they can, but there are other less costly methods
    F. Countries are competing for something
    G. Choice of tactics determines what the outcomes will be
    H. No international institutions to solve and enforce peace
    I. If you win a war, it is costly and could leave your state worst off
    J. An agreement could leave you ahead
        1. Tends to benefit both sides because both parties are winners in some respect
    K. No matter how you engage in conflict, at some point the conflict will be over
    L. If you can end it before you start it, you will be better off
    M. The side that is fighting and is going to lose will fight because it thinks that it will be
        better if they fight.
    N. Wars happen because the parties can not agree on the consequences of the conflict
    O. Cause of war is irrationality
        1. One country must think they are going to do better than they really are
III. Jim Feron
    A. You do not have to be irrational to be wrong
    B. On average the guess about how you and the other side are going to do is accurate
        1. Individuals situations are different.
    C. States could do something rational, but still could be wrong
    D. Problem with international relations is you must guess about the other party
        1. Example: NATO bombs Serbs so they will leave Kosovo
    E. One party is more optimistic
        1. Serbs think they are going to do better
    F. Causes of war are unique to each case
    G. Can not predict only speculate the possibility of war
    H. US was irrationally optimistic about how they were going to do in the Vietnam war
    I. You can not estimate how other states are willing to sacrifice for the cause until they
        go to war.
    J. Countries try to do everything to get their way
IV. Why democracies are less likely to go to war with each other:
    A. In a democracy it's harder to hide things
        1. Can not bluff
        2. Communications/Technological
        3. Hard to bargain aggressively
        4. Must use force because they can't bluff
    B. Linked through economics and monetary unions
        1. If the US went to war with Europeans it would destroy the US economy
        2. Hard for the US to use force
    C. Citizens get roles in foreign policy
          1. If the leader makes an incorrect claim, the public can turn around and punish them
V. Third World Conflicts
    A. Dramatic increase regional and ethnic conflicts after the Cold War.