Wednesday, March 31st, 1999

Announcements: None

Lecture notes:
I. Elements of International Relations that are factors of War:
    A. Deterrence
        1. Most important when explaining conflicts in the international system
        2. Realists say that the nature of the international system is the need to compete
            a. It is able to create security -- ability to protect oneself
        3. Attempt by one state to not be threatened by another, but taking counter measures
        4. A foreign policy that seeks to persuade an enemy through military force
            a. The cost of fighting doesn't out weigh the benefits
        5. Fundamentally a psychological process
        6. Hard to determine if deterrence happens
        7. Effort by one state to get another state to do something through force
            a. The US bombing Iraq
    B. Two types of Deterrence
        1. Deterrence by Denile
            a. Try to make it impossible to achieve its good that conflicts with your goal
            b. It is a direct action
        2. Deterance by Punishment
            a. Indirect
            b. Tell another state if they do something you will take action against them
            c. What NATO is doing to Serbs
            d. Not directly reaching your goal
            e. Gave them a reason to change their action
    C. Deterance is when you get another state to not do something (psychological defense)
        they want to do to reach their goals.
    D. Compliance is when you get another state to do something you want them to do after
        they have done something you don't want them to do.
        1. Iraq was told by the US to get out of Kuwait
        2. It is harder to do because you are trying to get someone to do something different
            after they already are doing something else
        3. An offensive move (usually attack the other part)
        4. It is hard for the state that the other is trying to get to change behavior of because
            they must do so publicly, which means they are admitting they did something wrong
            a. This is why Serbs can not sign the treaty now that they have already rejected
            b. Would be embarrassing to the state
    E. Nature of Deterrence depends on situation
        1. Who is doing the deterrence?
            a. Someone who is against you
            b. You are acting as a third party if you are using deterrence
            c. Or other state is stepping in to help you
        2. How immediate is the solution?
            a. Direct- one state says to another, " If you do x, I will do y"
                - x is action
                - y is reaction
            b. Extended - involves at least three parties
                - "I you do x to this party, will do y to you"
            c. General - Warsaw Pact
                - It could have attacked Western Europe
                - Not going to happen soon, but could happen in the future
                - Potential danger
            d. Immediate Deterrence - an act you do not want to happen that is about to happen
    F. Realists say that all countries are continuously engaged in general deterrence

II. If deterrence is successful, there is no conflict
      A. When you divide deterrence into categories it is easier to look at how deterrence
            works
      B. How deterrence is successful and how countries can improve use of it
      C. It is hard to figure out how successful it is:
            1. Most of the process takes place in psychologically
            2. Hard to distinguish between successful deterrence and non action
                a. neither has anything happen
            3. US and Canada have had long no conflict relationships is it a deterence (General)
                a. If so, what is the difference between NATO and the Warsaw pact
                b. Must make assumptions about what the other country wants
            4. Assumptions are the reason it is hard to distinguish between deterrence and
                non action.
III. Paul Hoth
    A. Looks at Extended Immediate Deterrence
        1. Must have a situation where there is a present, pending threat
        2. Easier to identify
        3. Extended involves a commitment for another country to get involved
    B. Example:
        -North and South Korea has conflict (US has alliance with South Korea)( General)
        -North Korea starts to line up military along border (about ready to step into South
          Korea)
        -US tells them not to
        -North Korea does not invade  ( not necessarily a successful deterrence)
    C. How to make deterrence succeed:
        1. Military conflict
            a. Does not matter who is stronger
            b. Who uses their military most efficiently
            c. Where or not all resources are being/willing to be used
        2. Bargaining
            a. Always some kind going on even if it is behind the scenes
            b. If they give up to soon, they will not get anything
            c. If they wait to long, people become scared
            d. "Tit for Tat"- sharing; compromise giving a little, taking a little
        3. Past Behavior
            a. If you give up to soon, look weak
            b. "Crying wolf"
    D. Problems with Deterrence
        1. Selection bias
            -at the beginning
        2. Not all countries will attack another, only those with strong feelings about it
        3. Each side may not win, but they think they are going to do better than the other
            side thinks they are going to do.
            a. Japanese in W.W.II
IV. Alliance
      A. Important institutions
      B. One of the few institutions that has lasted throughout history
      C. Enhance security of state
      D. If you are dependent on another state , is that state reliable
      E. States look at the state they are going to invade and see how reliable their allies are
        1. Iraq with Kuwait
      F. Improve creditability of extended deterrence threats
      G. Types:
        1. Defense:
            a. One or more parties pledge military forces to aid other states
        2. Neutrality
            a. Non aggressive
            b. Make an agreement not to attack another party
                ( Russia and Germany when they invaded Poland)
        3. Another alliance that is rare today, but was popular in the 18th and 19th centuries
            a. Promise to tell state if they are going to attack a third party