Monday, March 29th, 1999

Announcements: None

Lecture notes:
I. Sequences of events that occured last week in Kosovo
    A. For the last couple of days NATO has been carrying out night attacks on Serbs.
        1. Most of the forces involved in the attacks are US
        2. Some of the other countries do not agree with the air strikes
    B. The first thing the NATO forces want to establish is air superiority; they do this
        by:
        1. Bombing targets that would impair the Serbs air power, such as missile sites,
            communications centers, air fields, etc.
        2. People in Kosovo are complaining because they are ignoring the military sites
            in Kosovo.
    C. In Kosovo, ethnic Albanians make up 90% of the population.
        1. One fourth the popluation of ethick Albanians has left in the last two years.
        2. 60,000 have left in the last fourty-eight hours.
        3. Serbs are pushing them out of Kosovo
`   D. In Russia, the US embassy has been under attack
        1. A man tried to shot a RPG, which is used to blow up tanks, at the embassy
            a. Moscow police were able to stop the attack
        2. Russians are loyal to Serbians
    E. Historic reason for fighting between Serbs and Albanians has been going on for
        hundreds of years.
        1. Turks invaded and fought the Serbs in the area that is now Kosovo
        2. They consider this area to be the birth place of there nationality
        3. Kosovo contains many sites that have religious significants for the Serbs
        4.  Serbs nationality is born in Kosovo, but according to standards for establishing
            nationality of a region, the ethnic Albaninans have the upper had because they
            make up the majority.
    F. People have been fighting in Balticans for years
        1. Under Soviet rule in this region fighting was suppressed
        2.After the Soviet Union collapsed, the Serbs held the capital of the former
           Yugoslovia and all of its military and political power.
        3.  Used their political control to stop fighting and get their own way
    G. The KLA was formed a few years ago to help stop the Serbs
        1. They are not strong enough to stop the Serbs alone
        2. NATO must help them to try to defeat Serbs
    H. This situation could possibly disband NATO because it could cause its members
        to faction.
        1. This is NATOs first major military action after the Cold War
    I. The two reason the President said the US is involved in the air strikes:
        1. The ethical obiligation to the people of Kosovo
        2. Tinderbox- conflicts in this region has lead to two World Wars
    J. Two ways to win a conflict:
        1. Force other side to do something
            a. It can't be done with air strike alone, must have ground troops
        2. Wear down the other side until the other side gives up on their own
            a. If they don't concede , they must apply more force or give up
    K. Germans never really controlled Yugoslovia during W.W II because of the rebel
        resisentance forces
        1. It is a very wooded and mountainous region, so the rebel forces had the
            advantage.
    L. If NATO went in, they would be supported by the ethnic Albaninans, unlike the
        Nazis, who weren't supported by the people of Kosovo.
        1. There is no guarantee that the Serbs will back down
    M. If President Milosevic gives into NATO demands, it will ruin his standing in the
          eyes of his citizens.
    N. If NATO backs down, they can not keep their image.
        1. In order for a conflict to occur,one must overestimate their power, and  one
            must admitt that they overestimated their power.
        2. Errors of past have a lot of influence on present decisions
        3. Human rights are not the main focus
        4. Conflict is not essential to the US's national security
            a. No clear national interest
        5. NATO and US involvement is not acting in self interest
    O. Since NATO started bombing the Serbs, the rate of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo
        has increased.
        1. Some feel the Serbs were going to do it anyway, the bombing just speeded up
            the process
    N. One instance were air strikes worked in Jordan
        1. In the 1960s the Palestinans were trying to overthrow King Huessin.
        2. The Jordan army was winning until the Syrians sent their tanks into support the
            Palestinans.
        3. The Israelis sent in some fighter planes, but didn't bomb
        4. The Syrians fled and so did the Palestinans.
    P. Neither side will back down because:
        1. NATO is stronger, but Serbs want it more
        2. One has to have it, but the other wants it but doesn't have to have it.