Wednesday, February 10th, 1999

Announcements: A new overseas program is being offered by the political science department for a six week summer course in Maastricht, Holland. The program is for European Integration. Courses will be offered in political science and economics. The 9- credit program will run from June 15-August 10, 1999. Each participant will take a 3 credit course in both political science and economics. The last two weeks of the course will be spent traveling around Europe visiting the major financial institutions. Each participant will receive 3 credits for this and will be required to keep a journal which will be turned into the faculty advisor from PSU. All class will be taught by Maastricht professors in an English tutorial style. If you have questions: mhb5@psu.edu, or call 5-3205.

Lecture notes:
I. Review of Monday's class
    A. Social Psychology Perspectives- how leaders make decisions.
        1. Heuristic- using the " rule of thumb" for most decisions, but not in crisis situations
        2. Cognitive Misperspectives- during important decisions leaders are stressed, and worried
                                                            and therefore they tend to make more mistakes.
    B. Things to look at when evaluating a leaders decisions:
        1. Historic "Great Man" Theory- evaluates the person themselves
        2. Misperception Theories - looks at the act that the decision was made about
        3. Janis's Group Theory- looks at the group surrounding the decision
II. Graham Allison's book " Essence of Decisions"
    A. Book uses the Cuban Missile Crisis to analyze the decision making process
    B. Concerned with how decisions are made
    C. He chooses this because of the wide spread prior knowledge of the subject
III. Cuban Missile Crisis
    A. Very important for United States in its power in international relations
    B. Occurred during the peak of the Cold War ( October 1962)
    C. Leader of USSR during this time was Khrushchev.
    D. During the end of Eisenhower's administration he had U2 spy planes fly over the USSR
        1. A U2 plane was shot down and the pilot was captured
        2. The USSR government put the pilot in front of reporters, and relations soured
   E. Kennedy and Khrushchev met in Europe, but the meetings didn't work
        1. The reason was that Khrushchev looked at Kennedy as nieve because he was young and a
            new leader.
   F. Cuba was a sour spot for the United States
   G. The United States believed that anything associated with the USSR is bad or wrong
   H. United States sponsored an invasion of Cuba, called the "Bay of Pigs"
        1. The invasion was planned under Eisenhower's administration by the CIA
        2. JFK was told about the invasion when he took office
              a. He was concerned about how the invasion would look on to the public and to the
                 international community.
              b. In response, he pulled some of the resources being put into the invasion
        3. The invasion was carried out by ex-Cubans trained by the CIA
            a. Nearly all the invaders were killed by Castro's army who was waiting for them
            b. The invaders were very limited resources
       4. Due to the failure of the invasion Khrushchev believed he had JFK "over a barrel," because
            JFK went on national TV and admitted he was wrong
   I. At the time, the CIA had a large system of gathering information but the system was imperfect
        1. The CIA ignored Cuba, because someone told them it wasn't a threat
   J. Cuba soon came to the fore front of the Cold War battle because it had the USSR was putting
        missiles in Cuba.
        1. The missiles were immediate to long range missiles and were aimed at various US cities
        2. The first time in US history when in 20 minutes parts of the country could be wiped out,
            including New York, Washington, Philadelphia, and Miami
        3. Missiles were being readied
    K. Two reasons JFK had to make a decision:
        1. International relations: the USSR thought that JFK would back down and that the USSR
            would be the only super power.
        2. Constituents: JFK was afraid that his opponents in Congress would scrutinize his decision
            and say he was a weak leader
IV. What did JFK do?
    A. JFK establishes a committee
         1. It is called the Executive Committee-- Ex-com
    B. Representatives on this committee include some of the most important people in international
        relations.
        1. They all held positions in government
        2. Were appointed by the president
    C. The committee couldn't agree because it was such a hard decision
    D. Some of the members include the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs ( or one of his representatives)
        1. Sometimes all five were present
        2. Sec. of State and his deputies specializing in this area
        3. The president's brother, Robert Kennedy, who was Attorney General
            a. This position usually doesn't deal with international affairs
            b. JFK wanted him to be there for personal reasons
        4. Sec. of Commerce
        5. Sec. of Defense
    E. JFK didn't want to be at the meetings because he felt that him being there would prevent things
        from being said that needed to be said.
    F. They finally decided to bomb Cuba
        1. Downfall: Would lead to WWIII and end of the world would ensue; must bomb so to
                            prevent WWIII
        2. Also so the US isn't threatened by missiles
    G. Ex-com proposed this plan to JFK
         1. He did not like the plan, and sends them back to the drawing board
    H. They finally decide on a plan to use a naval quarantine
        1. It is another way of saying "blockade," but US could not use that terminology because
            blockades are against international law except in war
        2. If the US would use a "blockade" it would be considered to be declaring war on Cuba
        3. Also the US needed international support
    I. The US goes to the UN Security Council complaining about the USSR putting missiles in Cuba.
        1. USSR denies the allegations, because they feel that it will take a few weeks for the US to
            prove their case.
           a. They feel by denying it will give them the time they need to finish preparing the missiles
        2. US uses CIA pictures to prove its allegations
        3. International sentiment shifts in favor of the US.
    J. During this time the USSR has parts on the way to finish reading the missiles
    K. Some members of the EX-com don't feel like the tension because some of the missiles are
        ready.
    L. Others believed it is good because it is a message to USSR , but one that won't lead to war
    M. Sometime the US and USSR ships will meet, and it will be out of the leaders hands, so they
        must act quickly.
         1. They started to communicate through the backdoor.
         2. JFK received two letters from Khrushchev--one that says "let's settle this" -- another says
              that the US is wrong
         3. JFK goes to Ex-Com with both letters  and doesn't know which ones to respond to
         4. They decide to take what they like from both of them, and respond to those
    N. Result: The USSR pulled its missiles from Cuba and called by its ships; the US pulled some
                      of its missiles from Turkey.
IV. Three ways Allison explains how decisions are made:
     A. Rational Unitary Model -treat the country like a black box; assume that you can treat the
                                                    entire country as one actor.
          1. Advantage- It is simple to look at because you only have to look at the leader
          2. Disadvantage- It leaves out other important decision makers
    B. Organization Process - includes heads of bureaucracy; more of a group orientation
        1. "Where you sit is where you stand"
        2. Government is not an "it", but a "they"
        3. Different groups in the bureaucracy compete for power
        4. Representatives to the president act like lobbyists trying to fight for a cause
    C. Governmental Politics- incorporates a little of each of the previous explanations
        1. It is not where you sit, but what the person making the decisions thinks of you
            Example: Robert Kennedy was on Ex-com because JFK trusted him, not because his
                            job was related to crisis directly.
        2. It is not where you come from, but the level of influence and respect you have
V. Note: Both Allison's and Robert Kennedy's description of events are absolutely
               inaccurate.
    A. Decisions were really made by Robert and JFK
    B.. Ex-com served as consultants
    C. Robert told this version for two reasons:
        1. He was a political player with aspirations to run for president.
        2. He needed to make his brother look good
VI. Collective Action (Problems)
    A. When what the individual doesn't change a situation, but either way the situation still has
        and effect on the person's welfare.
 

B. Result: If both join--revolution may or may not fail and the persons will both have to
                take a risk.
                If one joins and one doesn't--no matter if the revolution succeeds or not,
                the one will take risks and the other won't. (if revolution is won, both will
                reap benefits, if it fails, one will lose and the other will not be affected as
                greatly.)
C. It is the most beneficial not to join, because not matter what the individual player
    does it will not change anything.