Monday, February 8th, 1999

Announcements: None

Lecture notes:
I. Current Events
    A. Domestic- Senate is going to vote on the impeachment of President Clinton within the
                            next few days.
            1. Within approx. 48 hours of the indictment of impeachment, President Clinton, along
                with the head of the Joint Chiefs, ordered two air strikes; one was on a factory that
                was thought to be producing warfare, but later it was found that it wasn't.
            2. Some believe that he did this in hopes of diverting attention from the impeachment
                onto the air strikes.
            3. Others believe that President Clinton should step down, because all his attention is on
                the trial and not enough on the affairs of the nation.
    B. International- The death of King Hussein of Jordan died, and now his son, who is still
                                unproved in the politics.
            1. King Hussein died from complications of cancer; he returned to Jordan two days ago
                after failed treatment at the Mayo clinic in the US.
            2. King Hussein's son, King Adbullah II, was a career military man leading the Jordan
                special forces, until King Hussein appointed him his successor in January; for the last
               34 years, King Hussein's brother was to be his successor.
            3. Jordan is seen as a moderate Arab state, and it is vital to the peace in the region that it
                remain that way. If King Adbullah II continues his father's foreign policy ideology, it
                will keep the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of the moderate Arab
                states.
            4. Jordan was second Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel; the treaty was
                signed in 1994.
            5. Reason why Jordan had good relations with Israel: In the 1970s, Palestinians
                from Southern Israel moved into Jordan and attempted a coup d'etat to overthrow
                King Hussein. Syrian forces moved in to aid the Palestinians. To counter this move,
                Israel planes flew above Syrian tanks and ground forces. After seeing the planes, the
                Syrian forces retreated.
III. Affects of the Individuals on Constructing International Relations
    A. Do events make the people in history, or do people make the events in history?
        1. A little of both is thought to be the answer.
        2. In looking at the rule of  King Hussein in events of the Middle East, you look at what
            affects his personality had on events that took place in there since he had come to
            power.
    B. Two things to look at when trying to determine the role of a leaders personality in
         the events of history:
        1. Psychological Predispositions- an individuals perceptions of the world.
            a. When two people looking at a situation may view a situation differently, because they
                have come from two different backgrounds.
        2. Cognitions- beliefs about the world.
            a. How you take events and put them into meaningful relations.
            b. Understanding the leader's beliefs is very important in determining what decisions
                they will make.
    C. Two different kinds of events international relations:

       1. Peak- Crisis, policy changes, events that would cause the major fundamental changes in
                      the policy of a nation.
          a. Few decisions are peak decisions.
          b. These decisions involve the leader directly.
          c. Are under a time limit
       2. Mundane - are the everyday decisions that have to be made.
               a. Usually not made by the leader, but by a group of his advisors.
              Example: The decision to raise the type of stamps by 1 cent, it is made by the Post
                              Master General, and is not under a time limit.
IV. How does the decision will affect the information?
    A. Heuristic Model - everyone has a "rule of thumb"
        1. When solving a problem, one looks to the "rule of thumb" to solve it.
        2. Can solve problems quickly because you don't have to treat everything as an individual
            event, you can look to the " rule of  thumb for the answer."
       Example: When you get up in the morning, you can get up and pick out something to
                        wear from your closet. You don't have to search through the history books
                        to find an outfit from the 16th century and have it made for you.
        3. Using the model allows you to put specific problems into boxes.
    B. Cognitive Misperception- Not all problems fit neatly into boxes.
         1. "Think outside the box" in crisis situations
         2. Can not make peak decisions because it puts a lot of stress on the decsion-makers.
         3. A time limit which makes it easier to make a more objective than subjective decisions.
         4. Leaders are going to make the best decision when they are not pressed, and can apply
            the "rule of thumb"
V. Social Psychology Perception
    A. " Great Man" Theory of History
        1. Is the nature of decisions is most prominent or is it the influence of person making those
            decisions the most prominent?
        2. "People make history"
        3. You must look who made the decision and what about the made them make the
            decision that they did.
           Example: 1. Hitler was adopted when he was a child, and his adoptive father did not
                                treat him well.
                            2. Sadam Hussein had a rotten childhood.
        4. If you look at a person's childhood to explain their present behavior
        5. Also looking into the early adulthood and the first job a decision maker can give you
            insight.
             a. The most important leaders have important jobs.
        6. You can not take a person out of an event to see if the event would still happen.
           Example: Would there have been a WWII without Hitler.
VI. Other view: Looks more at the act, not the person (can control better).
    A. Misperception theories:
        1. Some theorists: Alexander George, and Irving Janis
        2. Case- Some point in history that has events linked to it
        3. Looks at the decisions that the leader makes
        4. Must make some assumptions about the events
        Example: The Vietnam War was a bad decision
        5. Why are leader made decisions usually bad?
            a. To analyze you must break down the decision to all the elementary parts.
    B. What is it about the leader's character that lead to their decision?
        1. You have to focus on the social predisposition of the leader so not to misinterpret it.
        2. Look at the event and explain it.
        Example: In astronomy, stars look one way in one place can look completely different
                        in another.
        3. You need to take an outside perspective when analyzing a decision.
        4. You also need a great deal of knowledge about the event and the leader to understand
            what they were thinking.
            a. Leaders tend to lie about what happened if decision is wrong.
            Example: The Sec. of Defense during the beginning of the Vietnam War blamed
                            everyone else in the Cabinet but himself when he wrote his "tell all" book
                            in 1996.
        5. If we are going to explain an error in judgment, how can we claim it is right because we
            are all people, and everyone view situations differently.
VII. Environment
    A. Janis believes that a decision is the consensus of the group.
        Example: The Friends of Bill - the group of advisors at the beginning of Clinton's first
                        term that were instrumental in the decisions made during this time.
    B. The group that surround the leader conditions the decisions the leader makes.
        Example: Gang warfare- gang members know nothing about the rival gangs members,
                        just that they are rivals, but are willing to kill them anyway.
    C. There is pressure within group to conform to the group.
         Example: Three people are placed in a room that has colored shapes on the wall. Two
                        of the people are in on the experiment and try to convince the third the
                        shapes/colors are different from what they really are. They are trying to get
                        the subject to conform.
        Example: Cult leaders try to get there followers to conform to their beliefs.
    D. Out Group Norms
        1. Pressure to identify yourself from different groups
        Example: Gang members wear specific colors to separate themselves from other gangs.